Morning Note
Relief Rally, and Now We Watch the Flows
Friday, July 31, 2026 · 3:00 AM ET
Nice rally in everything yesterday. Gold traded up to about 4180 but then trickled back to 4130 — point of control sits at 4134. Small green shoots out of Iran and the removal of the FOMC overhang were the big catalysts. Earnings have been strong this season too, but they’re largely playing out as sell-the-news events.
The relief rallies in semis are impressive and look like they want to continue. My read: this is likely a short-term, oversold bounce all around — I’d like to see Gold start building a base from here rather than just riding the tape.
Bias on Gold is neutral. Oil is behaving, so from here we’re watching rates and the dollar for clues on where the flows go next.
Context I’m watching
- Rates & the dollar are the tell. With oil calm, flows will take their cue from the long end and the DXY — the 30-year is up near 5.25%, its highest since 2007.
- WTI behaving. Crude around $84 after the Iran-driven spike faded; not the source of stress this morning.
- Semis carrying the tape. The oversold bounce in chips is doing the heavy lifting on the Nasdaq 100 — watch whether it holds or fades into the weekend.
Levels reference the specific futures contracts shown (ESU26, NQU26, GCZ26). Personal market notes for general information only, not investment advice; confirm before acting.