Faith & Free Markets

S&P futures traded lower yesterday, down from a high of 7715.25 to 7672.25 after news of escalating tensions in Iran. The futures caught a little bounce late to end 7680. Asian hours found the S&P testing day session lows early, followed by a steady grind higher to 7691.5 near the European open. They spent most of Tuesday clinging for life at 7700, but now that support appears to have become overhead resistance. Barring any positive developments in the Middle East it will take some effort to work off the volume overhang that has accumulated there. The monthly point of control (POC) sits at 7691.5 and the weekly POC is 7680. What’s it mean? A whole lot of trading has taken place in the 7680 to 7700 area for the last month, and the volume profile shows that clearly.

Gold futures spent most of Tuesday’s session in a range between 4458 and 4435. They also trailed off in the afternoon on war news and settled just off session lows at 4400. Similar to the S&P futures, lows were tested early in the Asian session, down to 4385, but by the time they were in full swing buyers came in to push prices back up to 4456.4. They’ve since settled back to 4445, which is the weekly point of control and just $5 off the monthly POC.

Treasuries ended the day little changed. The 10-year is now sitting a half tick off the 107′08 low from 9/2 — the level it was three ticks above yesterday. There used to be a time that war news would put a safe haven bid under bonds, but they seem more concerned about the upcoming inflation data (PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday). Estimates look to be 0.3% core PPI and 0.2% core CPI. Throw in the inputs that matter and we’re seeing 0.4% for both.

BTC traded in a very tight $1,500 range and ended Tuesday’s session around $78,600. Asian hours were steady around this level but with an upward bias. BTC futures are currently trading $79,965. Not reading a lot into BTC, but noting that it does appear to be consolidating, momentum has been positive, and it might be an indication of which way risk appetite is skewed.

Understandably, focus shifted to crude oil on Tuesday when war news sent the price of front-month WTI futures up about $3 from session lows at $91.75 to session highs at $94.75. That market is looking pretty stretched and tired up at this $95 area, and producers seem to be flagging after a very strong run. Contrary to the news, it feels like oil will look for any excuse to correct and let out some steam, even if its path is ultimately higher. Crude is currently holding gains right here at $95.

Barring any positive developments in the Middle East it will take some effort to work off the volume overhang that has accumulated there.

Context I’m watching

• ES: a month stacked in 7680–7700. The monthly point of control at 7691.5, the weekly at 7680 — Tuesday’s cling-for-life support at 7700 is now overhead resistance, and the volume profile shows exactly why.
• Gold: back at the weekly POC. Tuesday’s 4458–4435 range gave way to a 4400 settle, then a 4385 Asian low before buyers pushed it to 4456.4. Now 4445 — the weekly point of control, $5 off the monthly.
• Treasuries: sitting on the 9/2 low. The 10-year a half tick off 107′08, the level it was three ticks above yesterday. War news used to put a bid under bonds; this time they’re watching PPI Thursday and CPI Friday — 0.3% core PPI and 0.2% core CPI estimated, 0.4% for both with the inputs that matter.
• Crude: stretched at $95. Up about $3 Tuesday from $91.75 to $94.75 on war news, and looking tired up here. Contrary to the news, it feels like oil will take any excuse to let out some steam — even if the path is ultimately higher.
• Bitcoin: consolidating, momentum positive. A very tight $1,500 range into a $78,600 close, now near $79,965 — worth noting as an indication of which way risk appetite is skewed.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

S&P futures drifting lower from the local high of 7728.5 around midnight. Currently trading down 30 points to 7691.75 and coming right into weekly support at 7687.5 (the weekly point of control (POC) and consolidation area on 9/2). Bias for the moment is negative to listless. 9:00 AM brings the much anticipated Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index release. Arguably a more accurate read on inflation than the tortured PPI and CPI later this week. With stocks being closed yesterday it’s hard to get a read on what’s moving underneath, but it does look like semis, AI, and software are looking squishy in overnight trade. Back to the S&P futures: 7683 down to 7647 is an area of low participation over the last week. If the 7647 volume shelf can’t hold, the next area of support is 7618.5, which marks the low for the last month of trading and is the value area low (VAL) of the entire monthly range going back to August 9.

Gold futures are losing the battle to hang onto the 4450 point of control, trading 4437.5 overnight. A case can still be made for consolidation in this area if gold can hold the 4360 to 4330 support area marked by the low of 4329.3 set 9/1. Upside targets don’t seem to be on the docket for today, but 4500 and 4550 to the upside would give the bull thesis fresh life.

Ten-year note futures continue to scrape along the lows, currently trading 107′11, just 3 ticks off the 107′08 lows of 9/2. Slow-motion car crash in the making? Doubtful, but maybe Manheim holds the inflationary car keys. Likely not, and everybody will continue to wait on the Official cost of everything (except the food and energy we actually consume) later in the week for some kind of resolution to the stalemate.

BTC continues to tread water in the 78k to 80k area, currently trading 78.5k. After the recent run-up it could be a barometer of risk-on/risk-off behavior, so I’m keeping tabs for now.

Crude oil is up almost $3 this morning and looking to temper much of anything. Don’t worry, Headline CPI is ex-Food and Energy. Algos don’t eat or drive! But truly, let’s pray for a peaceful resolution to the problems in the Middle East. Pray that the folks in charge can find some humility and bring the temperature down.

Bias for the moment is negative to listless.

Context I’m watching

• ES: the ladder below. Right into weekly support at the 7687.5 point of control; 7683 down to 7647 is a week’s worth of low participation. If the 7647 shelf can’t hold, next is 7618.5 — the month’s low and the value area low of the whole range back to August 9.
• Gold: 4450 slipping. Trading 4437.5 overnight; the consolidation case holds while the 4360–4330 area does, marked by the 4329.3 low from 9/1. Nothing on the upside docket today, but 4500 and 4550 would give the bull thesis fresh life.
• Treasuries scraping the lows. The 10-year at 107′11, three ticks off the 107′08 low from 9/2 — a stalemate waiting on the week’s inflation prints.
• Two reads on inflation. Manheim at 9:00 AM, arguably the more accurate one; the tortured PPI and CPI later in the week for the Official cost of everything — except the food and energy we actually consume.
• Bitcoin as risk barometer. Treading water between 78k and 80k, currently 78.5k; after the recent run-up it’s worth keeping tabs on for risk-on/risk-off.
• Crude, and a prayer. Oil up almost $3 this morning on the Middle East — and a prayer that the folks in charge find some humility and bring the temperature down.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Sunday overnight into early Monday morning, markets are little changed with the US Labor Day holiday. Gold is off a little, tech is bid, and oil is quiet.

S&P futures held the line overnight Thursday into Friday morning at Thursday’s 7757.25 point of control (POC) going into NFP. To be expected. The number’s release marked the high for Friday, 7763.25. Volatility in equities was relatively subdued given the strong numbers and prior revisions. A fairly symmetrical ABCD push down to session lows at 7710.25 by 11:30. There was a nice push up from there to 7735 by 1 PM and into all sorts of good technical resistance — the 50% Fib retrace, VWAP, and a low-volume node. It sold off steadily from there to end just off the lows. Of particular note, the semis: they were exceptionally strong all day long. Solid outperformance in the Nasdaq 100 on a relative basis.

The VIX is on the radar here too. VIX futures are hitting lows with extremely crowded short positioning. This spring could be getting ready to let go just in time for the more typical September rough patch — historically the weakest month for the S&P going back to 1950.

Gold futures also held near Thursday’s POC going into NFP, and that release also marked the high for the session at 4524. It quickly made its low print around 9:00 at 4412.1 and staged a V-shaped recovery all the way back to 4496.2. It couldn’t quite tick 4500 and settled comfortably back a little to VWAP at 4482, then traded in a slow 20-point range for the remainder of the session, ending at 4477.2. The rally out of the late-summer consolidation is still comfortably intact, with the late-August downdraft looking like just that. Reclaiming 4500 will be good both technically and psychologically for the bull case.

ES and gold are looking for Treasuries to show their cards here to make the next definitive move. The strong NFP naturally knocked the 10-year for a loop, but not as much as markets needed for them to make a decision. Yields are already stretched, and sentiment and positioning so low as to warrant a Barron’s cover story this weekend. In that respect the number was disappointing. All in all, about a 4-tick move to 107′16 when the day was over. The 2s took the brunt and spiked through recent lows enough to run stops, but settled above them.

Bitcoin has been fun to watch. 77,000 to 82,000 on Thursday. Back to 78,800 on Friday. It ended Friday’s session at 80,000. The spring has sprung to the upside here, but it probably is due for some consolidation. Gotta put that jack back in the box and wind it back up.

Wall Street did what it does best on Friday — disappoint expectations. (Give some due to the holiday for tamping volatility.) Chatter abounds about the increase in probabilities the Fed will hike. (Gotta have something to fixate on. CPI and PPI are this week’s targets.) Honestly, we’re going into mid-terms of the most important election ever, since the last most important election ever. This time it’s for real though. If the Fed just has to get this quarter point done, they might as well do it now so it passes the two-day collective attention span. See that game last night? Beef’s expensive, another quarter point should do it. Puhlease. Don’t even.

ES and gold are looking for Treasuries to show their cards here to make the next definitive move.

Context I’m watching

• VIX: the crowded spring. Futures hitting lows with extremely crowded short positioning — a spring that could let go just in time for the typical September rough patch, historically the S&P’s weakest month going back to 1950.
• Gold: 4500 is the prize. The V-shaped recovery off 4412.1 ended the week at 4477.2; the rally out of the late-summer consolidation is intact, and reclaiming 4500 is good both technically and psychologically for the bull case.
• Treasuries hold the cards. A strong NFP moved the 10-year only about 4 ticks to 107′16 — disappointing against sentiment washed out enough to make the Barron’s cover; the 2s ran the stops and settled back above the lows.
• Bitcoin: rewind the jack-in-the-box. 77,000 to 82,000 and back to 80,000 — the spring has sprung, and some consolidation is probably due.
• This week’s fixations. CPI and PPI, amid chatter of rising odds the Fed hikes.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Strong rally in GC yesterday. It traded as high as 4558.6 by 11:30 before easing off the throttle for the rest of the session, trading down as low as 4506.1 on the London open. It has rallied back about halfway to the highs and is now trading 4531. Catalysts for yesterday’s strength were stabilizing crude and bonds and some Trump comments. I’d expect gold to continue consolidating between yesterday’s highs and this morning’s lows until the BLS releases the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data for August. Most important release since the last one. If gold can hold here for a bit, it will make a strong case for a continued rally out of the recent consolidation in a stair-step fashion.

ES was particularly strong and driven by the same catalysts as gold. The weekly point of control (POC) is at 7685, and ES is comfortably above that at 7758, building a new volume shelf as it consolidates in a tight range ahead of the NFP data. Notably weak again yesterday were the semis, which were lower on the day in the face of strength everywhere else.

MBT broke out of its recent coil to the upside in massive fashion. It climbed all the way past 82,000, some 4,000 points above the previously mentioned range. It has since eased just a touch but is still trading comfortably at 81,000 and treading water ahead of NFP like everything else.

Not to be left out, Treasuries — notably the 10-year — were up about half a point yesterday and are also consolidating their gains ahead of the number. These markets are all intertwined, and all of them ultimately hinge on rates, which for the moment are anchored to inflation expectations. Today’s NFP will give some indication here, if only for a few hours ahead of the holiday weekend.

These markets are all intertwined, and all of them ultimately hinge on rates, which for the moment are anchored to inflation expectations.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: the stair-step case. Rallied to 4558.6, eased to 4506.1 on the London open, now 4531 — consolidating between those bounds until payrolls. Holding here makes a strong case for the next stair-step higher.
• ES: a new shelf above the POC. Comfortably above the 7685 weekly point of control at 7758, building a fresh volume shelf in a tight pre-NFP range. Semis notably weak against strength everywhere else — again.
• Bitcoin: coil released. The breakout came in massive fashion — past 82,000, some 4,000 points above the old range — now treading water at 81,000 like everything else.
• Rates anchor it all. The 10-year up about half a point and consolidating; today’s payrolls give some indication on the rate picture — if only for a few hours ahead of the holiday weekend.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

GC nice rebound off of recent lows. Steadying. Low 4329.3 on 9/1 and back up through the 4450 point of control (POC) to 4488.9. Currently 4484, up 69+ points on the session. Metals traded with a bid all day, aided by some dovish remarks by Fed Governor Williams and Treasury Secretary Bessent. The rally appears to be back on track, but still around 275 points to get back to the 4755 high set a couple weeks ago.

ES has a similar shape to gold. Good bids yesterday across everything except semis. The market bottomed 7618.5 yesterday and rallied strongly after the Fed-led two-barrel blast of dovish words. Consolidating those gains nicely in the 7669 to 7692 range. Currently 7680.5. There are a handful of earnings left this season, but I’d expect volatility to be tame as it awaits Friday’s payroll numbers. Undoubtedly the most important set of payroll numbers since last month and until next month.

BTC continues to consolidate gains and has found a new level around 78,000 to mark time. For what, I don’t know, but all indications are for higher. The longer it coils, the stronger the release when it does finally go.

Treasuries little changed to slightly bid. A strong move there changes all the narratives. All eyes are there — and war. Oil is persistently above 90 for now.

Undoubtedly the most important set of payroll numbers since last month and until next month.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: back through the POC. From the 4329.3 low on 9/1 up through the 4450 point of control to 4488.9, helped by dovish remarks from Williams and Bessent. Rally back on track, with about 275 points to the 4755 high.
• ES: consolidating the blast. Bottomed 7618.5 — right in the support zone — then rallied on the two-barrel dovish blast; now digesting in the 7669–7692 range ahead of Friday’s payrolls.
• BTC: coiled at 78,000. Marking time with all indications for higher — the longer it coils, the stronger the release.
• Treasuries, war, and oil. Little changed to slightly bid, but a strong move there changes all the narratives; oil persistently above 90 for now.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

GC is currently trading 4372. The 1-year point of control (POC) is 4030, the 1-month POC 4450, the 1-week POC 4650. The trend has now flipped negative after a solid week of getting clubbed. Even the smaller POCs are mostly overhead now, with the next support shelf coming in around 4200. The narrative has gone from full-on bullish to cautiously neutral to bearish in the span of 10 trading days. The only positive being that things couldn’t look much more negative. War, oil, and rates continue to dance around each other. Add in stocks pulling back from all-time highs while entering a historically volatile month, and things look pretty bleak. Staying on defense seems to be the best play for the time being. Patience for good opportunities is more important, because mistakes will not be washed over by a rising tide.

ES is coming right into a decent support zone in the 7600 to 7630 area. Perhaps it can chop around here for a few days to gather energy for its next move. History suggests that move will be lower as we reach the month’s back half. We are coming into trendline support at 7600 (this comes off the low set at the end of March), but below that we’re looking at a low-volume node all the way until we find a major POC at 6873.

BTC is continuing to be the relative strength winner. It is still holding onto the gains grabbed after bolting from the 65,000 consolidation area. Currently trading 77,300. The bottom of the recent range of the last 10 days is 76,000, with no volume support until all the way back down at the previously mentioned 65,000.

Patience for good opportunities is more important, because mistakes will not be washed over by a rising tide.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: trend flipped negative. From full-on bullish to bearish in 10 trading days after a week of getting clubbed. The POC ladder is mostly overhead — 4650 on the week, 4450 on the month, 4030 on the year — with the next support shelf around 4200.
• ES: into the support zone. The 7600–7630 area, with trendline support off the late-March low at 7600. Below that it’s a low-volume node all the way to the major POC at 6873. History suggests the next move is lower into the month’s back half.
• BTC: relative strength winner. Still holding the gains from the 65,000 breakout, trading 77,300; the 10-day range floor is 76,000, with no volume support beneath until 65,000.
• Defense over offense. War, oil, and rates dancing around each other in a historically volatile month — patience for good opportunities, because there’s no rising tide to wash over mistakes.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Walked into a little bit of a sell-off at 4 AM. Markets look like they were steady through Asia, but the tone changed around 3:30, with GC, ES, and BTC all trading lower. GC stepped down to 4438 from 4500. ES down from 7705 to 7673.5. MBT down from 79,540 to 78,570. BTC is the strongest of the three at the moment.

GC, ES, BTC, and Treasuries have continued ticking lower over the last hour, making new session lows. ES 7647.75, GC 4414.8, BTC 78,165 (still strongest relative). September is traditionally a weak and volatile month, and it looks to be staying true to form. Time to get the popcorn and watch setups do their thing. No use fighting the tape here.

September is traditionally a weak and volatile month, and it looks to be staying true to form.

Context I’m watching

• The 3:30 turn. Steady through Asia, then the tone changed: GC stepped from 4500 down to 4438, ES from 7705 to 7673.5, MBT from 79,540 to 78,570.
• New session lows into 5:30. ES 7647.75, GC 4414.8, BTC 78,165 — BTC still the strongest of the three on a relative basis, with Treasuries ticking lower too.
• September, true to form. Traditionally weak and volatile — watch the setups do their thing and don’t fight the tape.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

GC is starting the week on the defensive. Down $40 at the moment and sitting on some minor support in the 4480 area, at 4488.5. The first leg down happened during Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Hard to tell what the market was expecting, but whatever it was, it wasn’t to the liking of metals. Gold has continued trading weak since the Asia open, hitting a low of 4445.5. The nascent uptrend on the daily is still intact, with the point of control (POC) for the month at 4445.5 — hey, matching levels. One to watch. For the moment, this looks to be a sell-the-news event to work off some froth. At the end of the day, nothing has changed to fundamentally alter the metals narrative.

ES is weaker this morning too, carrying much the same narrative as gold and digesting the non-news event of Jackson Hole. Zooming out a level, the hourly chart still looks constructive. ES has been grinding out a series of lower highs since 8/24’s low at 7655. It traded as high as 7782.5 going into Warsh’s speech and executed a picture-perfect rug-pull reversal. I’d score that reversal candle a 9.5 in the competition. This morning looks like a grind off of Asia session lows. The POC for the week is up at 7772.5. It seems like only yesterday we were there… because we were.

Treasuries took a decided turn lower on the speech, especially on the short end, but the long-end damage wasn’t as dire as it seemed. Again, stepping back just a bit, the movements don’t look like a sea change, but more of a profit-taking reset and adjustment. Treasury refundings haven’t even begun yet. Iran is as quagmiry as ever, and Lake Ontario has now been decreed to be Lake America by Dear Leader. Clowns are still in charge. All good.

Our new friend BTC is holding its recent gains and consolidating just below 80,000. It is building a nice volume shelf at 79,000, up from the 64,000 shelf that still serves as the POC. (Not for long, it would seem.) It’s all low volume between the two extremes. For the moment things look constructive as it trades relatively flat in the 77,000 to 82,000 range, with most of the volume closer to 80,000.

At the end of the day, nothing has changed to fundamentally alter the metals narrative.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: sell the news. The first leg down came during Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech; the overnight low of 4445.5 lands exactly on the monthly point of control at 4445.5 — one to watch. The nascent daily uptrend is still intact.
• ES: rug pull, still constructive. As high as 7782.5 into the speech, then a picture-perfect reversal (a 9.5 in the competition). Grinding off Asia lows with the weekly POC overhead at 7772.5 — we were just there.
• Treasuries: reset, not sea change. The short end took the worst of it, but stepping back it reads as profit-taking and adjustment — and Treasury refundings haven’t even begun yet. Iran quagmiry as ever; clowns still in charge.
• BTC: shelf on shelf. Consolidating just below 80,000, building a volume shelf at 79,000 over the old 64,000 POC shelf; constructive and flat in the 77,000–82,000 range.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

The upward trajectory in GC flattened in a hurry. GC remains in a holding pattern while step-brother silver plays catch-up. Between the Asian session Wednesday night and the European session this morning, gold has traded in a $100 range from 4730 to 4620, all generally downward sloping. Yesterday was silver’s time to shine, and the outperformance continues this morning. GC is trading unchanged on the session (4660) while silver is trading up 1.58% (71.35). Silver historically is the more volatile of the two and can be a little harder to read due to its many uses outside of money. For now, it’s at least playing catch-up to gold, and could be taking the lead as gold continues consolidating below $5,000.

ES was largely rangebound between 7755.75 and 7702.75 as the markets digested Nvidia earnings and they rippled through various companies related to AI and semis. Overnight has seen more of the same but in a narrower range — 7747.75 up top to 7727 lower. We’re currently trading 7738.5.

Treasuries traded slightly weaker all session. They have been busy getting ready for the big Jackson Hole hoedown, where Warsh is expected to speak at 10:00 AM ET. The topic of the conference is fake money and how to set the stage for the rubes to take it, but the market will be looking for clues on monetary and interest rate policy in light of Bessent’s recent trial balloons of QE foreva. Interestingly, they've dispensed with the formality of even naming these Keynsian fever dream ideas.

BTC traded as high as 81,640 before easing off in a pretty metered fashion down to 79,505 right now — the lows of the session. No sense of alarm here, just taking a breather.

For now, silver is at least playing catch-up to gold — and could be taking the lead as gold continues consolidating below $5,000.

Context I’m watching

• Silver: catch-up, maybe the lead. Up 1.58% at 71.35 while gold sits unchanged; historically the more volatile of the two and harder to read given its many uses outside of money.
• Gold: holding. A $100 downward-sloping range from 4730 to 4620 since Wednesday night’s Asian session; still consolidating below $5,000.
• ES: digesting Nvidia. Rangebound 7702.75–7755.75 as earnings rippled through AI and semis; overnight narrowed to 7727–7747.75, now 7738.5.
• The Jackson Hole hoedown. Warsh speaks at 10:00 AM ET; the market wants clues on monetary and rate policy after Bessent’s QE-forever trial balloons. Treasuries slightly weaker into it.
• BTC: a breather. High of 81,640, then a metered ease to session lows around 79,505 — no sense of alarm.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Gold leaked lower the entire session after peaking 4730.6 on Tuesday night. It came all the way down to test 4637.6 three times and caught a bid at the Asian open Wednesday night. GC peaked at the 4697.1 point of control (POC) for the week and turned lower. Now down to 4651.6, at the low bound of a consolidation range which peaked at 4755 late Monday.

ES spent most of Wednesday’s session drifting and chopping around the week’s POC at 7687.5. All markets were in a holding pattern waiting for Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings, which played out in textbook fashion. Beat, trade lower, wipe out fan boys, come back bid and lift all markets higher. ES rallied as much as 60 points by early in the Asian session. It is currently trading 7721.5 and in the upper half of the range traced out from Wednesday’s close. Earnings cloud lifted, we’re free to go back to worrying about rates, which continue to test everybody’s patience — and war, same.

Meanwhile, back in the oil patch and on the crypto ranch, oil has quietly drifted lower 8 handles from 87.69 to 79.62. Currently off that low at 82 but unchanged on the session. BTC spent Wednesday chopping around the week’s 79,128 POC, but also rallied in Asia after the earnings cloud lifted. It is currently trading 80,000, off of the 81,350 euphoric rally high set Monday night.

In short, this morning finds oil, metals, and bonds all muted while BTC has caught a bid and equities look set to make a run to all-time highs. If they can’t, blame Canada! Trump’s foreign policy seems to be largely informed by South Park’s Team America World Police.

This morning finds oil, metals, and bonds all muted while BTC has caught a bid and equities look set to make a run to all-time highs.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: testing the low bound. Leaked lower from Tuesday night’s 4730.6 peak, tested 4637.6 three times, caught the Asian-open bid, then failed at the 4697.1 weekly POC. Now 4651.6, the bottom of the consolidation that peaked at 4755 late Monday.
• ES: textbook Nvidia. Beat, trade lower, wipe out fan boys, come back bid and lift all markets. Up as much as 60 points in early Asia, now 7721.5 in the upper half of the post-close range — free to go back to worrying about rates and war.
• Oil patch and crypto ranch. Oil quietly drifted five handles lower, 84 to 79. BTC chopped the 79,128 weekly POC, caught the Asia bid to 80,000, off the 81,350 euphoric high.
• The run at the highs. Oil, metals, and bonds muted; BTC bid; equities look set to make a run to all-time highs — and if they can’t, blame Canada.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Gold put in a doji-style candle in Tuesday’s session, and on an outside bar. It’s looking short-term “toppy.” At the moment we’re down $5 from yesterday’s close but $65 from the high of 4755. The previous-day low (PDL) was 4658.7, and we’re at 4690. That’s too many levels to describe what is shaping up to look like a pennant forming on the lower time frames from yesterday’s range. We’ve got a narrowing range forming around the weekly point of control (POC), which is at 4697, that will beg for resolution sooner or later.

It was a quiet session on Tuesday for ES. It is drawing out a similarly shaped narrowing range, with support at the value-area low (VAL) of 7665 being built on the hourly chart going back a month. The POC is 7772.8, with current prices 7683. Another market marking time, coiling and awaiting resolution.

ZN continues chopping around 108-16, pretty much unchanged over a month’s time.

After reaching the 81,350 peak on the 24th, BTC trended lower in a few choppy moves. It hit a low of 77,900 late yesterday and has made a slow and steady move up to 79,165, also starting to mark some time.

All major markets find themselves marking time at 3:30 AM on a Wednesday. Bessent has said as much as he can say. Best described as much ado about nothing. We have children and clowns running the world, and until a serious adult steps in to do adult things, we’re probably going to be in this headline-driven holding pattern.

Until a serious adult steps in to do adult things, we’re probably going to be in this headline-driven holding pattern.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: a pennant at the POC. A doji-style candle on an outside bar looks short-term toppy; a narrowing range is forming around the weekly point of control at 4697 and will beg for resolution sooner or later. $65 off the 4755 high.
• ES: coiling on month-long support. A quiet, narrowing range with support at the 7665 value-area low built on the hourly going back a month; the 7772.8 POC sits overhead with price at 7683.
• ZN: a month of nothing. Still chopping around 108-16, pretty much unchanged over a month’s time.
• BTC: marking time too. Off the 81,350 peak from the 24th to a 77,900 low late yesterday, then a slow and steady climb back to 79,165.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

GC continued its ascent yesterday, but at more of a 25-degree slope than 45. A previous-day low (PDL) of 4651.6 and previous-day high (PDH) of 4738.5 puts 4850 to 5000 squarely in the crosshairs. The overnight high was 4755 in the Asian session, where the air began to thin and gold turned a little lower to grab some oxygen. The low was 4672.5, and we’re now 4700.

ES labored in a relatively tight range yesterday between 7655 and 7703.25. Great day to play the range around VWAP (the volume-weighted average price). The overnight low during Asia was 7660.25. It chopped higher from there, where it finally decided to launch from 7681 up to 7714 in short order. The spark occurred at 4:05 AM, and ES is now trading 7710, which is just off the highs and matching the highs last seen two days prior. Time will tell if this is a new resistance area. We’re back near all-time highs, so the sky is literally the limit.

Bessent was back on the airwaves yesterday proclaiming economic D-Day for Iran. Markets largely shrugged. What used to carry a half-life hardly warrants mentioning, except to say rates were largely unchanged but slightly bid, and they continue to be slightly bid this morning. Perhaps this bond market slump ends with a whimper and not the bang we’re all looking for. It’s not as satisfying, but it could get the job done.

BTC was the standout of the day yesterday. It climbed from a somewhat lofty 75,710 to 81,350 late last night. That’s in the span of about 50 hours. That market appears to be consolidating at 80,000. Maybe the previously mentioned turn in rates will be the fuel gold, stocks, and BTC all need to make their respective pushes to all-time highs. Stay tuned.

Maybe the turn in rates will be the fuel gold, stocks, and BTC all need to make their respective pushes to all-time highs.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: thinner air, same target. The ascent flattened from 45 degrees to about 25; PDL 4651.6 and PDH 4738.5 keep 4850–5000 squarely in the crosshairs. Overnight high of 4755 in Asia before a dip to 4672.5 to grab some oxygen; now 4700.
• ES: launch off the range. A tight 7655–7703.25 range day around VWAP, then a 4:05 AM spark from 7681 to 7714. Now 7710, matching the highs from two days prior — time will tell if that’s new resistance. Back near all-time highs.
• Rates: whimper watch. Bessent’s economic D-Day for Iran was largely shrugged off; Treasuries slightly bid again this morning. Perhaps the bond market slump ends with a whimper, not the bang — less satisfying, but it could get the job done.
• Bitcoin: the standout. From 75,710 to 81,350 in about 50 hours, now consolidating at 80,000 — and a turn in rates could be the shared fuel for gold, stocks, and BTC alike.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Since Wednesday’s low at 4385, GC has been on a pretty solid stair-step higher. The new high for this recent rally overnight is 4716.7. We are just off that high now at 4697. Picture perfect, with moving averages at 45-degree slopes. Marching directly up to that 4850 to 5000 zone. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.

The picture in ES is not as nice. Where gold glides higher, ES chops lower. 7657.75 was the low near the close on Thursday, but the high since has only made it as high as 7703.25. Lots of sector-specific rotation going on under the surface, with a notable tug of war between cyclicals and tech (semis and software inside of that).

Rates have not moved much in net. The long end got a shot with Bessent, but without war resolution or any serious discussion on the economic front, yields remain elevated.

It’s surprising that gold has rallied in the face of yield uncertainty, but the real shocker that caught most people on the wrong foot has been BTC. It consolidated in the 60 to 65k range for months and broke out with force the past few sessions, and people are taking notice. Price is currently around 77k. It’s probably due for a little consolidation here if this rally is going to be sustainable.

Marching directly up to that 4850 to 5000 zone. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: picture perfect. A solid stair-step from Wednesday’s 4385 low to an overnight rally high of 4716.7, moving averages sloping at 45 degrees — marching directly up toward the 4850–5000 zone.
• ES: chop, not glide. The low near Thursday’s close was 7657.75, and the high since has only made it to 7703.25. Heavy sector rotation underneath — a tug of war between cyclicals and tech, with semis and software inside of that.
• Rates: elevated and unresolved. The long end got a shot with Bessent, but without war resolution or serious economic discussion, yields remain elevated.
• Bitcoin: the real shocker. Months of consolidation in the 60–65k range broke out with force to ~77k; probably due for a little consolidation here if the rally is going to be sustainable.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

GC largely held the previous day’s gains and traded in a narrow range between 4506 and 4597. It started the NY session on its low, worked higher, and ramped on Bessent jawboning. The point of control (POC) of the week and month is 4450, but it looks like that train has left the station. Overnight has seen gold build on yesterday’s gains, and it is now trading 4620. For the moment it looks like all systems go for 4800 to 4850, where I’d expect us to run into some choppiness.

Equities started Thursday weak but slowly started sorting winners from losers. Semis held their ground on a relative basis as pretty much everything interest-rate related was sold. The Treasury pep talk on Wednesday faded, and bonds ended up lower than their lows on that day. Rates were and are still the focus early this morning, although equities appear to have firmed up broadly.

One market that has been waking up from a long slumber is BTC. It had been in a months-long consolidation phase that is resolving higher this week. There are a few factors driving it higher. One, rumors of someone being liquidated. Two, complacent traders caught flat-footed and coming down with a big case of FOMO. Three, Treasury QE nonsense driving people back to anything without a printing press attached. Watching, as this thing can make big moves in a hurry when the crowd moves.

For the moment it looks like all systems go for 4800 to 4850, where I’d expect us to run into some choppiness.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: the train has left the station. Held Thursday’s gains in a 4506–4597 range, ramped on Bessent jawboning, and is building overnight at 4620. The weekly and monthly point of control at 4450 is behind us; all systems go for 4800–4850, where some choppiness is expected.
• Rates still the focus. Wednesday’s Treasury pep talk fully faded — bonds ended below that day’s lows — and rates remain the early driver, even as equities firm up broadly.
• Sorting winners from losers. Semis held their ground on a relative basis while pretty much everything interest-rate related was sold.
• Bitcoin: slumber over. A months-long consolidation is resolving higher — liquidation rumors, flat-footed traders with a big case of FOMO, and Treasury QE nonsense driving people back to anything without a printing press attached. It can make big moves in a hurry when the crowd moves.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Huge rally in GC yesterday after Treasury announced increased buybacks at the long end of the curve. The monthly and weekly point of control (POC) is still coming in at 4450, but a new high-volume node is being built at 4550. After yesterday’s blast caught everybody flat-footed, GC stayed bid all session and has consolidated around 4535 to 4550, hitting a high of 4584 at the close of Wednesday’s session. For the moment, today seems to have a fairly neutral bias.

ES and NQ were bid on the drop in Treasury yields, but they still have a lot of resistance built up overhead after the pummeling seen in semis the previous day. ES pushed up as high as 7765, just shy of the monthly POC up at 7772.8, but chopped most of the session in the 7720 to 7745 range. The bias doesn’t feel particularly negative, but it does feel heavy as equities continue consolidating highs put in just a few sessions prior. Semis did stabilize, and metals-related stocks led the way to the upside.

Treasuries understandably blasted higher on the Treasury Department buyback announcement, but perception and reality soon parted ways. ZN failed to take out a high of 109-035 set last Thursday and faded back to just above unchanged by the end of the session. 10-year note futures have since traded in a 10-tick range between 108-28 and 108-18 and feel heavy this morning, trading offered.

As is often the case, when the dust settles after an administration announcement, the markets come back to the reality that we still have a $40 trillion debt and endless war.

When the dust settles after an administration announcement, the markets come back to the reality that we still have a $40 trillion debt and endless war.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: a new shelf at 4550. The monthly and weekly point of control still sits at 4450, but a new high-volume node is building at 4550. Post-blast consolidation runs 4535–4550 after Wednesday’s closing high of 4584; today’s bias looks fairly neutral.
• Equities bid, but heavy. ES stalled at 7765, just shy of the 7772.8 monthly POC, and chopped 7720–7745. Plenty of overhead resistance remains after the semi pummeling; semis stabilized and metals-related stocks led the upside.
• Treasuries: perception vs. reality. ZN failed at last Thursday’s 109-035 high and faded to just above unchanged; since then a 10-tick range, 108-28 to 108-18, trading offered this morning.
• The reality underneath. A $40 trillion debt and endless war — still there when the dust settles.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

GC was generally weak and downward sloping for all of Tuesday’s session. After making its high at 9 PM on Monday night, it stair-stepped lower all the way down to 4383.5. After trading as low as 4376.5 overnight, GC has stabilized and is currently trading 4412 — about $40 below the week’s point of control (POC) up at 4450. This behavior looks to be consolidation more than correction.

There is little sign of panic, especially in light of long-end Treasury yields, which refuse to give up the ghost, and continued uncertainty punctuated by clown behavior in the Middle East war. Threatening Oman, probably our biggest and most unsung ally in the region — really? We are truly run by clowns.

After yesterday morning’s update, stocks continued lower, with extreme weakness in the semi space. The one space where green shoots were appearing just hours before quickly became too hot to handle, with corrections in the neighborhood of 4% and greater. ES couldn’t hold the line even with strength in software and cyclicals. It traded in a steady 45-degree angle lower from left to right, bottoming at 7698 in the overnight session a couple hours ago.

Stocks look to have stabilized here, and ES is trading 7720. This is a volume shelf area for the week, as are 7766 and 7807 (the POC) above. It’s going to take some work to claw back there, but for now equities appear to be in sync with gold.

It’s still too early to tell if the bids of the last couple of hours are constructive or just a pause in the selling. The next major support below is all the way down at 7465.75.

It’s still too early to tell if the bids of the last couple of hours are constructive or just a pause in the selling.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: consolidating under the weekly POC. Stair-stepped from Monday night’s 9 PM high down to 4383.5, with an overnight low of 4376.5; now stabilized at 4412, about $40 below the week’s point of control at 4450. Consolidation more than correction.
• Semis: green shoots to too hot in hours. Extreme weakness in the semi space, with corrections in the neighborhood of 4% and greater; strength in software and cyclicals couldn’t hold ES up.
• ES working the volume shelves. Stabilized at the 7720 weekly shelf after bottoming at 7698 overnight; 7766 and the 7807 POC above will take work to claw back. Next major support all the way down at 7465.75.
• Long end and the clown show. Long-end Treasury yields refuse to give up the ghost, and the Middle East war keeps serving up uncertainty — threatening Oman, of all allies.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Update 5:45 - NQ has been leading lower overnight and the strength in Semis and AI noted below seems to have broken.  It's still too early to draw any conclusions but we're looking at losses of 3% across major Semis at the moment.  Crude and Notes are little changed.  This is completely equity driven for the moment. 29350 is the next major support level for NQ.  From there the way lower is open down to 27250.  One step at a time though. This could simply be a run of the mill pullback that feels bigger than it is.

Major support and resistance numbers are unchanged from yesteday in GC. That market continued its upward consolidation but did not take out the 4509 high made on the 12th. This morning finds GC a touch weaker, trading 4444, or about $30 lower.

Stocks, on the other hand, had a decidedly negative session on Monday. ES started weak but steady. Steadiness gave way about midday and the tone turned more bearish as stocks went out near their session lows. ES traded in a range from 7824 to 7765.

Overnight saw the leak lower continue, and we are currently testing session lows at 7716. The point of control (POC) on the hourly going back for a month is 7775, and we have not strayed too far from that since about August 4th.

ES is consolidating nicely near all-time highs. Under the surface, green shoots are continuing to sprout in the semiconductor and AI sectors as folks take profits on their recent gains in software and try to assess what is real in the world of AI.

For now, all we can do is continue beating the drum of war and rates. Eventually, this market is going to grow tired of waiting and inching up the wall of worry and find a new area of interest — and given the season, that area is likely to be lower. When's that next most important number of all time coming again?

Eventually, this market is going to grow tired of waiting and inching up the wall of worry — and given the season, its next area of interest is likely to be lower.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: consolidation intact, a touch weaker. Upward consolidation continues but the high from the 12th still caps; this morning GC trades 4444, about $30 lower.
• ES leaking toward the hourly POC. Monday went out near the lows (7824–7765 range) and overnight is testing 7716. The month-long hourly point of control sits at 7775, and the tape hasn’t strayed far from it since about August 4th.
• Green shoots in semis and AI. Under the surface, profits come out of software while the market assesses what is real in the world of AI.
• War, rates, and the season. The drumbeat continues; a market tired of waiting likely finds its next area of interest lower.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

GC is now in a fully positive trend state. It is consolidating nicely in the 4400 to 4500 range. A small overhead volume shelf is just above at 4522. A decisive break above that finds the next likely overhead test around 4850, which is the value-area high (VAH) and home to a low-volume node. The overnight range all occurred between 8 and 9 PM, with a range between 4422 and 4473. GC has been rangebound but with an upward bias since.

ES is currently trading around 7815. It is consolidating near all-time highs around 7850, with support coming in around 7750 — the 50-period EMA on the 4-hour is right there too. The hourly is showing an even tighter range, bounded by 7800 and 7850. The market is looking for and needs a catalyst to break decisively. Rates and war continue to drive the narrative, and neither is tipping its hand.

Rates and war continue to drive the narrative, and neither is tipping its hand.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: positive trend, coiling. Fully positive trend state, consolidating the 4400–4500 range. Overhead volume shelf at 4522; a decisive break targets ~4850 — the value-area high and a low-volume node. Overnight ran 4422–4473 between 8 and 9 PM — rangebound with an upward bias.
• ES pinned near the highs. Consolidating near all-time highs around 7850, support ~7750 where the 50-period EMA on the 4-hour sits. The hourly range is tighter still — 7800 to 7850.
• Needs a catalyst. The tape is looking for a reason to break decisively; nothing is forcing the hand yet.
• Rates and war. Both still drive the narrative — and neither is tipping its hand.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

PPI came in soft yesterday, but it wasn’t enough to support Gold, which drifted and chopped lower all session. It eventually bottomed at 4365, within $10 of the point-of-control support mentioned yesterday. It touched there twice in the overnight but has since gone bid and is trading 4405. For now the weakness on display the last two sessions is likely nothing more than a pause and reset.

ES was strong yesterday and had bids pretty much all day long. Late-day M&A activity in the cash market gave a boost in an otherwise uneventful drift higher around the 7800 level that had proven to be overhead resistance. The news caused ES to slice through that without issue, and it is now trading near new highs at 7827. 7800 is fresh, but we’ll consider it as new support as the market plays around in blue-sky territory. I.e., there’s nothing else to reference at this point.

Rates finally look to have rolled over. It quietly started on the two-year end of the curve, but that has finally made its way to the long end. The soft PPI on the back of the tame CPI the previous day gave support to the idea that the Fed will be able to kick the can on interest-rate hikes at the next FOMC. This is beginning to feel a little like a Goldilocks scenario.

This is beginning to feel a little like a Goldilocks scenario.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: pause and reset. Soft PPI couldn’t hold it up; chopped down to a 4365 bottom, within $10 of the point-of-control support, tagged it twice overnight, now back bid at 4405 — likely nothing more than a pause and reset.
• ES slices 7800. Late-day cash-market M&A pushed ES through 7800 overheadresistance; now near new highs at 7827, with 7800 fresh support up in blue-sky territory.
• Rates rolled over. Started quietly at the two-year end and has finally reached the long end; soft PPI atop tame CPI backs the idea the Fed can kick the can at the next FOMC.
• A Goldilocks feel. Tame inflation prints and a softening curve are lining up — not too hot, not too cold, for now.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Yesterday’s much-anticipated CPI was a non-event. Every number came in at consensus estimate. This briefly gave markets, gold and stocks a boost, but it faded quickly once everyone realized expectations had already been fully baked in and they were in exactly the same situation as they were prior to the number. Namely, what’s the Fed going to do next and what’s going on in Iran?

GC is still comfortably above the 4356 point of control going back to Thanksgiving 2025, but pausing briefly after running into the overhead volume shelf in the 4500 to 4525 area. The profile for the last month reveals a point of control of 4134.7.  Naturally, if 4356 fails to hold we'll be looking to 4135 for support. Yesterday’s high was 4502.4, and the early Asian session breached it briefly — just enough to run some stops. High on that run was 4509.2. The market drifted steadily lower from there and currently sits at 4437.3, which is 30 points lower than yesterday’s close. Appears to be a healthy break after running into the 4500 to 4525 resistance previously called out.

ES is similarly running into overhead resistance at recent all-time highs and the round-number level of 7800, which it has now tested 4 times (high 7797). Unlike GC, the overnight picture for ES is a market that has been persistently bid but quietly. ES is currently up 10 points with NQ down 15. So, going back to the beginning, markets are waiting for the next thing to fixate on, and it comes back to the same thing as before: rates and war.

Treasuries did find a bid after the number but faded back a little to close only slightly higher on the day. It’s not much to write about, but chalk a win up for stability in the meantime. Crude is slightly off its highs, but also in limbo waiting for resolution. Here everybody sits, not wanting revolution so much as resolution.

Here everybody sits, not wanting revolution so much as resolution.

Context I’m watching

• CPI was a non-event. Every print landed at consensus; the pop in gold and stocks faded fast once it was clear expectations were fully baked in — right back to the Fed and Iran.
• Gold’s healthy break. Held well above the 4356 point of control from Thanksgiving 2025; Asia breached yesterday’s 4502.4 high to 4509.2 to run stops, then drifted to 4437.3 — a healthy pullback off the 4500–4525 shelf.
• ES at 7800, tested four times. Quietly but persistently bid into the round number and recent all-time highs (high 7797); NQ is a touch weaker this morning.
• Rates and crude in limbo. Treasuries found a bid post-CPI then faded to close slightly higher — a small win for stability; crude sits just off its highs, waiting on resolution rather than revolution.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

GC continuing to chug higher in a healthy fashion. Currently trading 4464.2, up about $30 from yesterday’s close, but also creeping up into a volume shelf in the 4500 to 4525 area. Overnight range was 4445 to 4475. The 20-day is just about to cross up through the 50-day, which has also made the turn higher. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a rally into that overhead area with a small pullback to consolidate and gather energy for the next push up to 4850.

All eyes on today’s CPI — the most important ever, since the last one and until the next one. It’s the one number that’s probably more manipulated by the government than the NFP, and yet here we are, tied to it as if it were a real thing.

ES and NQ are slightly higher this morning. Overnight action was tame in all markets ahead of the print. ES traded in a 57-point range yesterday, from 7739 to 7796. The point of control for the last week is 7778.5, just below the 7800 to 7820 zone — a low-volume node and the gateway to blue sky country. Overnight had a slight upward bias, but was hemmed in by CPI and the all-time high just above.

No war news has the rally in crude on ice for now. Notes seem largely stalled — they could be the tell once the CPI cloud has lifted. Rates are the key here. Every other market is whistling past the rates graveyard. Need to keep watch.

Looking for a rally into the 4500–4525 shelf, a small pullback to consolidate, then the next push toward 4850 — but rates are the key here, and every other market is whistling past the graveyard.

Context I’m watching

• Gold’s healthy grind. The 20-day is about to cross up through a 50-day that has itself turned higher; price is creeping into the 4500–4525 shelf, with a consolidation then a push toward 4850 the road map.
• CPI is the swing factor. The most important number “ever” until the next one — probably more massaged than the NFP, yet the whole tape is tied to it.
• ES at the gateway. Weekly point of control 7778.5 sits just under the 7800–7820 low-volume node — the gateway to blue sky country, with the all-time high capping overnight.
• Rates are the tell. Crude’s rally is on ice absent war news and notes are stalled; watch the notes and rates once the CPI cloud lifts — everything else is whistling past the graveyard.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Most markets spent the day entering chop and consolidation zones, digesting recent gains, watching for any real progress in Iran, and waiting on CPI and PPI later in the week. GC traded in a fairly narrow range, though generally higher all session — low 4373.7, high 4453.9, weekly point of control 4406. ES also traded in a narrow range as it consolidated last week’s gains — high 7797, low 7763.5. Treasuries are still looking for buyers, and crude was almost $4 higher as uncertainty about Iran put a cloud over the market.

Overnight, markets appear to have been quiet. Gold is bid ~$20, crude is up another $2, and notes and equities are offered just a bit — same as it’s been for at least the last few days. We remain on rate and Iran watch. They’re all intertwined in a delicate dance, with each taking their turn at the lead depending on the day.

We remain on rate and Iran watch — all intertwined in a delicate dance, each taking its turn at the lead depending on the day.

Context I’m watching

• Gold: narrow but higher. Session ran 4373.7 to 4453.9 with a weekly point of control at 4406; bid another ~$20 overnight as it keeps grinding up.
• ES consolidating. Tight 7763.5–7797 range digesting last week’s gains; offered just a touch overnight.
• Rates and Iran, plus CPI/PPI. Treasuries still looking for buyers; crude nearly $4 higher and up another $2 overnight on Iran uncertainty, with CPI and PPI later in the week the next catalysts.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

The gold chart is shaping up nicely. The weekly structure is a classic rally, pull back, consolidation, breakout pattern. Friday saw a good uptrend, ranging from the 4287 low Thursday night up to 4432 at Friday’s 9:00 AM high. The meat of that rally happened in the Asia and Europe sessions, with the US in a tighter range near the top of that zone — point of control 4408. Last night’s range is 4373.7 to 4421.6, and we’re currently sitting near the highs at 4414.5.

ES has roughly the same shape, although its Friday rally was more persistent — a low of 7725.25 and a high of 7784.13, with a point of control of 7775.75 from Friday’s action. There was some chop during the session, but ultimately it looks to be an upward consolidation as earnings and war developments continue to be digested. ES is currently 7791.25, just off the overnight high of 7796.5 and the all-time high of 7820.25.

The 10-year (TY), ES, the yen and the Canadian dollar are all pretty steady. Rates are feeling like Wile E. Coyote after he’s run off the end of the cliff — but before he realizes there’s no earth left below him, and before gravity takes hold and he plummets. Rates have just been in that suspended state for an extended period.

A classic weekly gold structure — rally, pull back, consolidation, breakout — and we’re pressing right back up to the highs, waiting on the break.

Context I’m watching

• Gold’s classic setup. Friday ran 4287 to 4432 with the point of control at 4408; overnight held 4373.7–4421.6 and we’re sitting 4414.5, right back at the highs and waiting on the breakout.
• ES upward consolidation. Same shape but more persistent — 7725.25 to 7784.13 Friday, point of control 7775.75; now 7791.25, just under the 7820.25 all-time high as earnings and war news digest.
• Rates suspended in mid-air. TY, the yen and the Canadian dollar are all steady; rates have hung in that Wile E. Coyote state — off the cliff but not yet falling — for an extended stretch.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

GC showed remarkable resistance yesterday in the face of some tough headwinds, as rates and the dollar ticked higher. Gold held pretty close to the 4100 level most of the day, but overnight it has broken back up to 4360 — right at the highs seen late Wednesday. The 2-year and 10-year notes are steady after yesterday’s minor clubbing, which saw higher rates across the curve.

I’m beginning to wonder if letting Japan unwind some Treasuries doesn’t do Warsh’s job for him and keep the Yen trade from turning into a catastrophe like we saw last summer. Higher yields let Warsh avoid raising rates at home, keeping a brake on inflation. They’ll never learn that using blunt instruments in place of a scalpel makes for poor policy and poor outcomes — but they’re all Keynesians at heart. Gas and bananas are still too damn expensive, on top of the price of money.

As usual, today’s NFP print from the Labor Department is the most important number of all time... until next time, when it’ll be the last time before (pick your event). Consensus is NFP +80k, unemployment 4.2%, average hourly earnings +0.3%. We all know the numbers are farcical at this point, but it’s what we’ve got... kinda like the rest of our government.

Crude was bid and stocks chopped lower almost all session yesterday, but stocks are off their overnight lows. ES is trading 7745 after peaking at 7820 on Wednesday’s open and printing as low as 7724 yesterday and overnight — looking like a potential double bottom in search of a catalyst to break higher.

Still looking to rates to break to keep the party going for Gold and stocks. It does feel like we’re building up for a rug pull, in time for the typical fall volatility.

Context I’m watching

• Today’s NFP is the number. Consensus +80k, unemployment 4.2%, average hourly earnings +0.3% — farcical or not, it’s the print everyone trades.
• Rates steady after the clubbing. The 2-year and 10-year firmed after yesterday’s move to higher yields across the curve; still watching for rates to break.
• Equity positioning building. ES looks like a potential double bottom (7724 lows vs the 7820 Wednesday peak), with call volumes ramping.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Metals surged yesterday — GC up 150 for most of the day, a great P-shaped volume profile, with the range running 4122 to 4325. The breakout had been building, and yesterday was the launch. Treasuries were pretty quiet, and stocks traded sellers for the most part.

Overnight, GC held firm — it made a high of 4363.8 and eased to 4313.6, but it held its ground. NQ is on the squishy side and ES is firm. Treasury prices are steady to a tick weak.

It’ll be interesting to see if GC can maintain its strength, as all eyes are on it for a change.

Context I’m watching

• All eyes on gold. The P-shaped profile and clean 4122–4325 range mark the launch after a long build; the question now is whether GC can hold it.
• Stocks mixed under the surface. ES is firm, but NQ is on the squishy side, and cash stocks traded sellers for most of yesterday.
• Treasuries quiet. Pretty quiet yesterday and steady to a tick weak overnight.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Yesterday was similar to Monday — bids all day long in equities and metals. Again, GC was bid, but not nearly as much as ES and NQ. Semis had a strong relief rally as ES made new all-time highs. Gold stayed pretty well anchored around 4150 and didn’t take out the 4180 highs from a few days prior.

Treasuries were stable and bid. I’m still of the mind that ZN (the 10-year) makes the headlines while TU (the 2-year) is sending the real signals. GC did take out 4180 overnight and got as high as 4239; it’s 4223 now, with the point of control right here for the early, young session. The bigger trend is just starting to turn bullish. As always, waiting on the rug pull — patient yet nimble.

All in all: metals look strong, stocks are steady, rates are steady with a slight curve flattening, and the dollar looks offered but steady against the yen and the euro.

Context I’m watching

• Rates: steady, slight flattening. Treasuries stable and bid; ZN (the 10-year) grabs the headlines, but I’m watching TU (the 2-year) for the real signal.
• Dollar offered but steady. Soft against both the yen and the euro, without breaking down.
• Semis leading again. A strong relief rally in chips carried ES to fresh all-time highs.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Small but steady drift higher in GC overnight after a little Asian-open volatility. Gold seems intent on holding 4100 support and was bid most of the session. ES was up over 100 points and has maintained its bid overnight — took down the 7620 target yesterday and 7650 overnight, all while the yen was bid and the Canadian dollar was largely unchanged.

Monday was remarkably unremarkable given the strong, steady equity markets. Same to be said for DXY and bonds, which were pretty flat on the session; the 2-year and 10-year were steady too. Oil is quietly getting bashed back down, even though it’s impossible to get a read on developments in the Iran war. It is TACO Tuesday — looks like we’re just waiting for TACOs and earnings today.

Much euphoria in the chats based on equities yesterday — a good recipe for a market-open smackdown across assets. But we’ll just sit back and watch.

Context I’m watching

• Rates quietly steady. The 2-year and 10-year barely moved; bonds were flat on the session.
• Dollar flat, yen firm. DXY went nowhere; the yen stayed bid while the Canadian dollar was largely unchanged.
• Oil fading. WTI is quietly getting bashed back toward the low 80s, with the Iran war still impossible to read.

Reference prices are front-month futures, ~15-min delayed, for general information only — not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Gold gapped open to 4142 on positive war news but has traded weakly since, down to 4102. Overnight looks like a big pennant. The yearly gold point of control is 4028 — 4067 over the last 20 days, 4090 over the last 5. It traded weak all day Friday as rates stayed bid and the previous day’s rally took a breath; Friday’s point of control was 4099. Building a huge shelf in this area.

ES drifted higher, got wobbly midday, then resumed strength into the close — 7426 to 7537, point of control 7505, with 7620 highs in sight. Rates and war are still the current walls of worry.

Maybe we just need the Treasury market to turn for the final piece to fall into place — and for Gold to rally. Watching TU; could be huge moves once rates break.

Context I’m watching

• Rates are the linchpin — watching TU. Rates continued higher; a turn in the 2-year (TU) could be the final piece for Gold to rally.
• Currencies stretching. The yen finally broke, and the Canadian dollar (CAD) is still at an extreme.
• War and rates: the walls of worry. Still the two overhangs hanging over this tape.

Levels reference the specific futures contracts shown (ESU26, GCZ26). Personal market notes for general information only, not investment advice; confirm before acting.

Nice rally in everything yesterday. Gold traded up to about 4180 but then trickled back to 4130 — point of control sits at 4134. Small green shoots out of Iran and the removal of the FOMC overhang were the big catalysts. Earnings have been strong this season too, but they’re largely playing out as sell-the-news events.

The relief rallies in semis are impressive and look like they want to continue. My read: this is likely a short-term, oversold bounce all around — I’d like to see Gold start building a base from here rather than just riding the tape.

Bias on Gold is neutral. Oil is behaving, so from here we’re watching rates and the dollar for clues on where the flows go next.

Context I’m watching

• Rates & the dollar are the tell. With oil calm, flows will take their cue from the long end and the DXY — the 30-year is up near 5.25%, its highest since 2007.
• WTI behaving. Crude around $84 after the Iran-driven spike faded; not the source of stress this morning.
• Semis carrying the tape. The oversold bounce in chips is doing the heavy lifting on the Nasdaq 100 — watch whether it holds or fades into the weekend.

Levels reference the specific futures contracts shown (ESU26, NQU26, GCZ26). Personal market notes for general information only, not investment advice; confirm before acting.